2021 predictions

Garfield (RadioShack, commish)
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2021 predictions Feb 5, 2021 23:12:39 GMT 1

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Post by Garfield (RadioShack, commish) on Feb 5, 2021 23:12:39 GMT 1

Participants: Sky

Their bets, also copied into the sheet:
Winning team Lotto

Highest jump in points Lotto

Leading team after LBL Lotto

Best GT team Sky

Best Cobbled team RadioShack

Best Hilly team Sky

Winning rider Roglic Pogacar Roglic Roglic Pogacar Roglic Roglic Roglic Ala Roglic
Leading rider after LBL Ala WVA Roglic Ala Roglic Alaphilippe Alaphilippe Alaphilippe Ala Ala
Best rider without contract Nakane Kirsch Archbold Cataldo Howson Liepins Martin Martin Schwarzmann Howson
Best rider points/€ in scrubs de Kleijn Mosca Aru Dupont Sbaragli Padun Carr Bouhanni Meintjes Roche
Best rider points/€ in duds Hindley Senechal Hindley Hindley Sosa Hindley SKA SKA Latour Hindley
Rider with highest increase Bernal Bernal Froome Bernal Bernal Bernal Bernal Bernal Bernal Bernal
Newly drafted neo highest Arensman Pidcock Pidcock Pidcock Fedorov Pidcock Bissegger Bissegger Pidcock Pidcock

Milano - Sanremo Sagan Matthews Sagan MVDP WVA WVA Ala MVDP Sagan WVA
Ronde MVDP MVDP WVA WVA MVDP WVA MVDP MVDP MVDP MVDP
Paris - Roubaix Sagan Pedersen WVA WVA WVA MVDP GVA WVA WVA MVDP
Liege - Bastogne - Liege Ala Alaphilippe Hirschi Ala Ala Alaphilippe A Yates Ala Ala Ala
Il Lombardia Mollema Roglic Roglic Pogacar Remco Remco Fuglsang Fuglsang I Izagurre Remco
Giro d'Italia S Yates Vlasov S Yates Remco S Yates Bernal S Yates Remco Pinot Bernal
Tour de France

Roglic Pogacar Bernal Roglic Pogacar Roglic Roglic Roglic Bernal Roglic
La Vuelta Vlasov Gaudu Almeida A-Yates Almeida Kuss Kuss Vlasov Remco Vlasov Kuss Vlasov Vlasov Bennett Vlasov Martinez Sivakov Kuss Vlasov Kuss
Tokyo RR Ala WVA Roglic Remco Ala Lutsenko Nibali Ala WVA Ala
Tokyo ITT Ganna Dennis Remco Ganna Dennis Ganna Dennis Ganna Roglic Ganna
worlds

RR WVA Pedersen MVDP WVA WVA WVA Sagan MVDP WVA MVDP
worlds

ITT Ganna Ganna Ganna Ganna Remco Remco WVA WVA Roglic Ganna
Most TdF

wins Ewan WVA Bennett Roglic WVA Bennett Ewan Ewan Ala WVA
Any GT KOM winner Carapaz Carapaz G Martin Guerreiro Pogacar Pogacar Pogacar Pogacar Bernal Carapaz

oliveira (Lampre) Global Moderator Posts: 1,150	2021 predictions Oct 27, 2021 20:28:04 GMT 1 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by oliveira (Lampre) on Oct 27, 2021 20:28:04 GMT 1 Predictions counting in the spreadsheet. Here's the Top 3: 36p and 31p 30p Congrats Jakub!

Garfield (RadioShack, commish)
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2021 predictions Oct 28, 2021 5:58:14 GMT 1

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Post by Garfield (RadioShack, commish) on Oct 28, 2021 5:58:14 GMT 1

Thank you for counting them up again!

But with Jakub retiring, perhaps it's a good moment to revisit the somewhat uncomfortably heavy nature of the prize? Both Davy and myself should end up in the top half of the table, so the last thing the balance of this game needs is another Pogacar/Remco/Pidcock in our ranks. Perhaps we could each get a single "third round" pick at the end of the draft instead?

davyduck (Vlaanderen)
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Posts: 711

2021 predictions Oct 31, 2021 23:55:11 GMT 1

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Post by davyduck (Vlaanderen) on Oct 31, 2021 23:55:11 GMT 1

I have no problem with that decision. But in the end the prize is so minimal. Especially because our squads are getting bigger, and our budget rises. So with that prize in mind, I wont do the effort to fill in those predictions. Imho the prediction part becomes totally irrelevant this way.

Last Edit: Oct 31, 2021 23:56:11 GMT 1 by davyduck (Vlaanderen)

Garfield (RadioShack, commish)
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2021 predictions Nov 12, 2021 10:26:19 GMT 1

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Post by Garfield (RadioShack, commish) on Nov 12, 2021 10:26:19 GMT 1

Alright, I admit I might have swung it too far. There's almost nobody who'll sniff 100 points midway through the second round already.
In my defense, I was terrified that people might just quit if Davy and myself end up with Ayuso and Plapp on top of having all the other strong riders.

How about some middle ground then? How about the winner gets to sign a 2nd-rounder to a 2y contract too?

I like it since no world-beaters are left at that stage, it accommodates ties seamlessly, and it makes your second round a bit more exciting.
Plus it motivates less analytics-possessed players to try their luck with predictions, because if they win it will apply to the 16th-20th pick, and if Luis wins it will apply to the 30th.

Thoughts?

Btw I'd consider this minor enough to introduce this year already, if you don't mind.

Last Edit: Nov 12, 2021 10:30:49 GMT 1 by Garfield (RadioShack, commish)

Joelsim (BMC) Global Moderator Posts: 1,550	2021 predictions Nov 12, 2021 10:42:43 GMT 1 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Joelsim (BMC) on Nov 12, 2021 10:42:43 GMT 1 Maybe the top 3 in predictions get to pick a second 2 year contract. But start it next year.

Garfield (RadioShack, commish)
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2021 predictions Nov 12, 2021 10:50:45 GMT 1

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Post by Garfield (RadioShack, commish) on Nov 12, 2021 10:50:45 GMT 1

Nov 12, 2021 10:42:43 GMT 1 Joelsim (BMC) said:

Maybe the top 3 in predictions get to pick a second 2 year contract.

Disagree. I'd stick with the winner since this only further diminishes the value of actually winning the damn thing.

Nov 12, 2021 10:42:43 GMT 1 Joelsim (BMC) said:

But start it next year.

Disagree, since I've noticed too late that what I proposed last week was a huge mistake. Davy is about to pass his 2nd-rounder, and I can guarantee I'm passing the 3rd-rounder. An empty roster spot is worth so much more than these semi-decent kids.
That's why I'd like to fix it ASAP rather than play a full season of a flawed game. Not that it would dramatically alter anything at this stage.

davyduck (Vlaanderen)
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Posts: 711

2021 predictions Nov 12, 2021 11:05:32 GMT 1 via mobile

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Post by davyduck (Vlaanderen) on Nov 12, 2021 11:05:32 GMT 1

I agree with Daniel.
With the new rules i wont even do the effort to make à prediction. As i almost every year pass 2nd round. So i definitely don’t care 3th round.

now i was in doubt. But i would pass for a 1yr contract.
À 2yr contract makes it at least interesting, and worth.
And i see no problem in doing it immediately as it wouldnt change anything.

oliveira (Lampre) Global Moderator Posts: 1,150	2021 predictions Nov 12, 2021 11:11:45 GMT 1 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by oliveira (Lampre) on Nov 12, 2021 11:11:45 GMT 1 Hi. I'm also about to pass my 2nd round pick, so I guess that 3rd round 1yr pick is not very significant. I find the solution proposed by Garfield an elegant one, and I've no problem in implement it this year.

Garfield (RadioShack, commish)
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Posts: 1,909

2021 predictions Nov 12, 2021 11:23:04 GMT 1

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Post by Garfield (RadioShack, commish) on Nov 12, 2021 11:23:04 GMT 1

Thanks for your input, guys. Introducing it instantly then.

PS
If anybody finds it unfair because it benefits my team: I kindly remind you I've started this discussion only because I refused to take Ayuso for free

qazaqstan (Katusha): So for example M. Van Dijke had 105 + 173 CQ points in the normal CQ ranking in the last two years, so he is eligible as surprise rider. But for the game itself, we will use your calendar, meaning that .1 races and national championships will not count ? Dec 1, 2024 23:43:59 GMT 1

qazaqstan (Katusha): Hi. It is correct that for the CR categories we will look at their normal CQ points, but for the standings, we will use fantasycycling calendar? Dec 1, 2024 23:42:17 GMT 1

arry1338 (Saxo): I'll check on my mobile at some point, may have to respond with a temporary account as I can't seem to log in on my phone Dec 1, 2024 13:35:11 GMT 1